Texans need win over Indy, loss by Jags to win AFC South title

Audio By Carbonatix

Indianapolis (8-8) at Houston (11-5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. EST, CBS.

BetMGM NFL Odds: Texans by 10 ½.

Against the spread: Colts 7-7-2; Texans 9-7.

Series record: Colts lead 33-14-1.

Last meeting: Texans beat Colts 20-16 on Nov. 30 at Indianapolis.

Last week: Colts lost to the Jaguars 23-17; Texans beat Chargers 20-16.

Colts offense: overall (11), rush (14), pass (12), scoring (7).

Colts defense: overall (24), rush (5), pass (31), scoring (19).

Texans offense: overall (20), rush (24), pass (16), scoring (16).

Texans defense: overall (1), rush (4), pass (4), scoring (1).

Turnover differential: Colts plus-1; Texans plus-14.

QB Riley Leonard. The former Duke and Notre Dame star is expected to make his first NFL start Sunday after coach Shane Steichen announced Wednesday that Philip Rivers would not play. The game gives Indy a glimpse into the progression Leonard has made this season. But his first test comes against one of the league’s most ferocious defenses.

QB C.J. Stroud is 4-1 with 1,443 yards passing, seven touchdowns and just one interception in five starts against the Colts. He had TD throws of 75 and 43 yards on Houston’s first two possessions last week and finished with 244 yards passing.

Leonard vs. Houston’s top-ranked defense. The rookie will have a big challenge facing a defense that features DEs Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., who have combined for 26 sacks, and a secondary starring All-Pro CB Derek Stingley. The Texans rank fourth in the league with 18 interceptions and fifth with 46 sacks.

Colts: With nothing to gain in this game — including draft position — Steichen faces a litany of questions about who plays and who doesn’t this week. It sounds as if QB Anthony Richardson is unlikely to be activated from injured reserve despite practicing last week and this week as he recovers from an orbital bone injury near his eye. ... CB Sauce Gardner re-injured his strained calf and appears unlikely to play. ... The offensive line could be in flux, too. LT Bernhard Raimann played last week with an elbow injury but could be held out this week. Starting C Tanor Bortolini (concussion protocol) and backup guard Dalton Tucker (shoulder) both sat out last week and could again. ... It’s unclear if rookie DE J.T. Tuimoloau (oblique) or receiver-returner Anthony Gould (foot) will return this week after missing last week’s game.

Texans: LT Aireontae Ersery is expected to return after missing last week’s game with a thumb injury. … G Ed Ingram could play after injuring his knee last week. … CB Kamari Lassiter could miss Sunday’s game after missing practice this week with ankle and knee injuries.

Houston has won the past four meetings. … Indianapolis last beat the Texans on Sept. 17, 2023. … The Colts won seven of eight, including a playoff game, from Dec. 2018-Dec. 2021. … These teams tied 20-20 on Sept. 11, 2022. … Indianapolis won the first nine games in this series. … The Texans didn’t get a win in the series until a 27-24 victory in 2006.

Indy has lost six straight and seven of eight to become the sixth team since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to start 8-2 and miss the playoffs — the first since the 1995 Oakland Raiders. ... Houston’s win last week over the Los Angeles Chargers sealed the Colts’ fate. ... Indy has lost three consecutive road games, going back to a mid-October victory at the Chargers. ... The Colts were the league’s highest-scoring team during the first half of the season, but have topped the 20-point mark just once in the past six games. ... Steichen heads into this game with a 25-25 record in three seasons. ... Leonard has appeared in four games this season, mostly in mop-up duty, and is 18 of 33 for 145 yards and two interceptions while rushing three times for 6 yards and one TD. ... RB Jonathan Taylor needs one TD run to break his franchise single-season records for TD runs (18) and total TDs (20), both set in 2021. ... Taylor also heads into the season finale ranked second in the league in yards rushing with 1,559. James Cook of Buffalo has 1,606 yards. ... Indy’s defense has a league-best seven red zone takeaways this season. ... The Colts also have had at least one takeaway in a league-high 15 games in 2025. ... K Blake Grupe has made all eight of his field-goal attempts and all seven of his extra points since joining the Colts in Week 14. … The Texans are the fifth team since 1990 to start 0-3 and qualify for the playoffs and the first team to do it twice after their 2018 team also accomplished the feat. … They are in the playoffs for a franchise-record third straight season and need a win Sunday and a loss by the Jaguars to the Titans to win the AFC South for a third consecutive season. … Houston leads the NFL in yards (272.4) and points (16.6) allowed per game. … RB Woody Marks had 71 yards rushing last week and had 64 yards rushing in the previous meeting with the Colts. … WR Nico Collins had 57 yards receiving last week for his ninth straight game with at least 55 yards receiving. He has at least five catches and 90 yards receiving in four of his five games against the division this season. … WR Jayden Higgins had 88 yards receiving and his fifth TD reception against the Chargers. … WR Jaylin Noel had 54 yards receiving and a touchdown catch last week. … Hunter had four tackles and a sack last week. He ranks third in the NFL with 14 sacks. … Anderson had three tackles, included two for losses and a half sack against the Chargers. He is fifth in the NFL with 19 tackles for loss this season. … DE Derek Barnett had two sacks last week. … DT Denico Autry had a sack and forced a fumble last week. … LB Azeez Al-Shaair had six tackles and an interception last week. He has had at least six tackles in four of his past five games. … LB Henry To’oTo’o led the team with 12 tackles and had one tackle for loss last week. … Lassiter had six tackles and a pass defensed against the Chargers. … Stingley had three tackles and a pass defensed last week.

Stroud could be a good pickup after throwing nine touchdown passes with just one interception in six home games this season.

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