What we know about how a government shutdown would unfold

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WASHINGTON (AP) — The threat of a government shutdown has become a recurring event in Washington, though most of the time lawmakers and the president are able to head it off. This time, however, prospects for a last-minute compromise look rather bleak.

Republicans have crafted a short-term measure to fund the government through Nov. 21, but Democrats have insisted that the measure address their concerns on health care. They want to reverse the Medicaid cuts in President Donald Trump's mega-bill passed this summer as well as extend tax credits that make health insurance premiums more affordable for millions who purchase through the marketplaces established by the Affordable Care Act. Republicans say that's all a non-starter.

Neither side is showing any signs of budging, with the House not even expected to be in session before a shutdown has begun.

Here's a look at how a shutdown would occur.

When a lapse in funding occurs, the law requires agencies to cease activity and furlough their “non-excepted” employees. Excepted employees include those who perform work to protect life and property. They stay on the job but don't get paid until after the shutdown has ended.

During the 35-day partial shutdown in Trump's first term, roughly 340,000 of the 800,000 federal workers at affected agencies were furloughed. The remainder were “excepted" and required to work.

A great deal, actually.

FBI investigators, CIA officers, air traffic controllers and agents manning airport checkpoints continue to work. So do members of the Armed Forces.

Those programs that rely on mandatory spending also generally continue during a shutdown. Social Security checks continue to go out. Seniors who rely on Medicare coverage can still go see their doctor and health care providers can still submit claims for payment and be reimbursed.

Veteran health care also continues during a shutdown. VA medical centers and outpatient clinics will be open and VA benefits will continue to be processed and delivered. Burials will continue at VA national cemeteries.

Yes, but not until the shutdown is over.

Congress has historically acted after shutdowns to pay federal workers for the days they were furloughed, though there were no guarantees it would do so. In 2019, however, Congress passed a bill enshrining into law the requirement that furloughed employees get retroactive pay once operations resume.

While they will eventually get paid, the furloughed workers as well as those who remain on the job may have to go without one or more of their regular paychecks, depending upon how long the shutdown lasts, which will create financial stress for many families.

Service members would receive back pay for any missed paychecks once federal funding resumes.

Yes, the U.S. Postal Service is not affected by a government shutdown. The U.S. Postal Service is an independent entity that is funded through the sale of its products and services, and not by tax dollars.

All administrations get some leeway to choose which services to freeze and which to maintain in a shutdown.

The first Trump administration worked to blunt the impact of what became the country's longest partial shutdown in 2018 and 2019. But in the selective reopening of offices, experts say they saw a willingness to cut corners, scrap prior plans and wade into legally dubious territory to mitigate the pain.

Each federal agency develops its own shutdown plan that in the past was accessible on the Office of Management and Budget's public website. So far, those plans have not been posted. The plans outline which agency workers would stay on the job during a government shutdown and which would be furloughed.

In a provocative move, the White House's Office of Management and Budget has threatened the mass firing of federal workers in the event of a shutdown. An OMB memo released Wednesday said those programs that did not get funding through Trump's mega-bill this summer would bear the brunt of a shutdown.

Agencies should consider issuing reduction-in-force notices for those programs whose funding expires Oct. 1, that don't have alternative funding sources and are "not consistent with the President’s priorities,” the memo said.

That would be a much more aggressive step than in previous shutdowns when furloughed federal workers returned to their jobs once Congress approved government spending. A reduction in force would not only lay off employees but eliminate their positions, which would trigger yet another massive upheaval in a federal workforce that has already faced major rounds of cuts this year due to efforts from the Department of Government Efficiency and elsewhere in the Trump administration.

Many shutdown plans submitted during the Biden administration are publicly available and some plans can be found on individual agency websites, providing an indication of past precedent that could guide the Trump administration.

Here are some excerpts from those plans:

— Education Department: “A protracted delay in Department obligations and payments beyond one week would severely curtail the cash flow to school districts, colleges and universities, vocational rehabilitation agencies, and other entities that depend on the Department’s discretionary funds to support their services.”

— National Park Service: As a general rule if a facility or area is inaccessible during non-business hours, it will be locked for the duration of the lapse in funding. At parks where it is impractical or impossible to restrict public access, staffing will vary by park. “Generally, where parks have accessible park areas, including park roads, lookouts, trails, campgrounds, and open-air memorials, these areas will remain physically accessible to the public.”

— Transportation: Air traffic controller hiring and field training would cease, as would routine personnel security background checks and air traffic performance analysis, according to a March 25 update.

— Smithsonian Institution: “The Smithsonian’s National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute, like all Smithsonian museums, receives federal funding. Thus, during a government shutdown, the Zoo — and the rest of the Smithsonian museums — must close to the public.”

— Food and Drug Administration: “Work to protect animal health would be limited, only addressing imminent threats to human life. Similarly, food safety efforts ... would be reduced to emergency responses, as most of its funding comes from appropriations. Longer-term food safety initiatives, including the prevention of foodborne illnesses and diet-related diseases, would be halted.”