Vote looms in Switzerland after foes of migration put proposal to cap population at 10 million

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GENEVA (AP) — Swiss voters will take up an unprecedented proposal to limit Switzerland’s population, part of a longtime push by right-wing leaders to cap the number of foreigners who migrate to the rich and economically vibrant Alpine country.

A national vote on whether to cap Switzerland's population at 10 million in coming decades culminates with in-person balloting on Sunday. Swiss democracy gives voters a direct say in policymaking through referendums typically held four times a year.

The proposal is backed by the populist Swiss People’s Party, which has the most seats in parliament and has for years thrived off and fomented an isolationist streak in Switzerland.

Recent polling from the gfs.bern agency suggested that it could be a close contest.

Supporters of the initiative dislike an influx of expatriates from the neighboring European Union, and say Swiss infrastructure, housing, social programs, natural resources and way of life have been strained under demographic growth.

Critics say passage would amount to a self-inflicted wound, arguing that Switzerland benefits from closer EU ties, and gets needed labor, expertise and skills from foreigners in sectors like healthcare, finance, pharmaceuticals and technology.

The federal government and Parliament oppose the idea. EconomieSuisse, a leading association of Swiss businesses, blasted it as an “absurd proposal” that threatens Switzerland’s security and prosperity.

Bernard Bapst, a People’s Party lawmaker in the Fribourg region and a former customs official, rejected any risk to security and said “various forms of criminality” have risen since Switzerland adopted an open-border policy.

Since Switzerland and the EU eased restrictions on citizens living and working across their borders in 2002, the Swiss population has grown by 23%, to 9.1 million as of the end of last year. Economic output has also increased, up 24% over the same period, government data show.

“We are the victim of our own success,” said Reto Föllmi, a professor of international economics at the University of St. Gallen in northern Switzerland.

A “yes” vote would require the Swiss government to take action to cap the population at 10 million by 2050. If the population reaches 9.5 million before then, it would have to enact restrictions on asylum, family reunification and residency permits, and could be forced to scrap Switzerland’s EU deal on the free movement of people altogether.

Because of the long-term horizon, experts say immediate economic and demographic fallout would be limited.

Rene Schwok, a political science professor at the University of Geneva, said a “yes” victory would strain Switzerland’s ties with Brussels and cloud the future of foreign investment in Switzerland: The EU is by far its biggest trading partner.

The 38-country Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has reported that Switzerland had a foreign-born population of 32% as of 2024. It trails only Luxembourg, where more than half of residents were foreign-born, and Australia.

International migration has long been a sensitive issue in Europe, as nations grapple with an aging population and increasing anti-foreigner sentiment. While that sentiment in other European countries centers on migrants from the developing world, most foreigners in Switzerland – by far – are Europeans.

Swiss voters have repeatedly tackled the immigration issue over the last half-century. Only one such referendum — “Against mass immigration” in 2014 — narrowly passed, after campaigners stoked fears about overpopulation and rising numbers of Muslims in the country.

No country has ever voted to limit its population, said Philippe Wanner, an expert in demography at the University of Geneva, though countries like China have had policies to curb population growth.

Many nations limit immigration, said Etienne Piguet, a professor at the Institute of Geography at the University of Neuchatel.

In Switzerland, the debate has simmered for decades.

Around the turn of the century, as anti-immigration feeling was rising in Switzerland, then-President Adolf Ogi insisted: “We live from foreigners … we need laborers for tourism ... we need intelligent people in Switzerland.”