Democrats hope a blue wave washes over Wisconsin and gives them total control of battleground state

Audio By Carbonatix

MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Talk to any Wisconsin Democrat about their hopes for 2026 and it's not long before the T-word comes up.

No, not Trump.

Trifecta.

Democrats think new district boundaries in the Senate and Assembly ordered by the liberal-controlled state Supreme Court, an open race for governor and a favorable midterm election cycle this year may allow them to take back total control in the Statehouse for the first time in 16 years.

That would be a dramatic shift in a perennial battleground state that served as a focal point for the nation's conservative movement in the 2010s, when Wisconsin slashed taxes, reduced the power of labor unions and started requiring voters to show identification at the polls.

Republicans acknowledge that Democrats have a clear shot at running the table, which would allow them to expand Medicaid, increase funding for public schools and restore collective bargaining for public workers.

“It’s a difficult time in national politics," Assembly Minority Leader Greta Neubauer told The Associated Press, “but we’re hopeful about the future and have been working for many years to be in a position where a Democratic trifecta is possible in Wisconsin and our state is able to go in a new direction.”

Republicans solidified political control in the state in 2010, when they gained majorities in the state legislature and Scott Walker was elected governor.

The ascendence began what became known as the “Cheesehead Revolution,” with Wisconsin natives Reince Priebus leading the Republican National Committee from 2011 to 2017 and Paul Ryan becoming U.S. House speaker from 2015 to 2019.

Walker championed conservative policies in the state, helped by state legislative maps that tilted the playing field in Republicans' favor. He was briefly seen as a frontrunner to be the party's presidential candidate, but he bowed out of the race before any primary votes were cast as Donald Trump bulldozed his way to the 2016 nomination.

Now Republicans could see their work undone.

“If there’s a Democratic trifecta, Republicans in Wisconsin have to be ready for all kinds of things that they fought for for decades to be long gone,” said Brian Reisinger, who worked on one of Walker's campaigns.

Democratic candidates for governor are optimistic about their party's chances.

“Let’s finally get a blue trifecta in Wisconsin in 2026!” Mandela Barnes, one of the leading Democratic candidates and a former lieutenant governor and 2022 U.S. Senate candidate, said in a December fundraising plea.

Current Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, another leading candidate, struck a similar chord in a social media post.

“Wisconsin has a real shot at a Democratic trifecta next year,” she posted on X. “Let’s go win it.”

Wisconsin remains a fiercely contested battleground state, and Trump won there in 2016 and 2024. However, Democrats hope that a strong showing this year will give them momentum before the 2028 presidential race. Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson's term is also up that year.

Reisinger, who has also worked for Johnson, said “the reality is that the electorate is going to remain evenly divided for a long time.” Right now the governor, Tony Evers, is a Democrat, but Republicans have a majority in the Assembly and Senate.

Liberals are also voicing concerns about winning back the Statehouse.

“A lot of the ingredients for success are there, but there’s no guarantees,” said strategist Melissa Baldauff, who formerly worked for Evers . “It’s not going to be just the nature of things lining up for this to be a good year for Democrats. That doesn’t guarantee anything. It takes a lot of hard work, it takes good candidates.”

Liberals have already gained a majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court and are looking to increase their hold on it in an April election. In another sign of Democratic momentum, the liberal candidate this week reported raising 10 times as much as her Republican-backed opponent.

The November race for governor is open for the first time since 2010 after Evers decided against seeking a third term. Democrats have never held the Wisconsin governor’s office for more than eight years in a row.

The crowded field on the Democratic side features Barnes and Rodriguez, plus two current lawmakers, the top elected official in Milwaukee County, the former state economic development director and Evers’ former top aide.

Barnes, who lost the 2020 Senate race to Republican Sen. Ron Johnson by just under 27,000 votes, is seen by many to be the frontrunner.

Rodriguez, the first candidate to get into the race in July, reported Thursday that she raised $650,000 for the year. Barnes was expected to report his fundraising totals later Thursday.

Presumptive Republican frontrunner U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, a staunch supporter of Trump, said he has raised more than $2 million since getting in to the race in September.

He faces Josh Schoemann, the Washington County executive, in the Republican primary. Schoemann, who is far less known and has a smaller base of support than Tiffany, raised $1 million last year.

The November election is the first where all the legislative seats are under district boundary lines in new maps ordered by the state Supreme Court to replace more Republican-friendly ones.

Democrats need to flip two seats in the Senate and five in the Assembly to take the majority.

Republican Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, whose job it is to recruit and support candidates to maintain the majority, expressed confidence even if it’s a year when there is “wind at our face.” He also faulted Democrats for spending too much time focused on “anti-Trumpism" and not what they would do if elected.

“Their issues are all focusing on fighting what Donald Trump is delivering on,” Vos said.

Longtime Wisconsin liberal activist Scot Ross encouraged Democrats to put forward a plan for "real substantial change to get people excited.”

“Trifecta isn’t a strategy and it’s not a message,” he said. “I love that Dems in Wisconsin want to talk aggressively about getting power, but people have to believe you will use that power to actually make your lives better.”